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How to Think About Our Problems
Outlining types of future problems
There are different types of problems that we will face now and in the future.
We need to evaluate the degree of “alarm” with which those problems should be treated.
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Outlining types of future problems
There are different types of problems that we will face now and in the future.
We need to evaluate the degree of “alarm” with which those problems should be treated.
Known problems with known solutions
Known problems with known solutions include the following:
- Global warming. It is partly caused by excessive emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). CO2 emissions come from energy generation and can be replaced by nuclear power.
- Declining freshwater reserves could be tackled through greater use of desalination and recycling wastewater.
Once the gravity of these problems becomes apparent to a critical mass of humanity, solutions would be put in motion.
Known problems with solutions within reach
Known problems to which solutions are not only imaginable but (probably) within reach include:
- Malaria: Like smallpox that was fully eradicated in 1980, it is not much of a stretch to think that Malaria will be defeated through a combination of genetic engineering, insecticide-treated mosquito nets, vaccines, and drugs.
- Superbugs or deadly viruses: Crispr technology allows for easy alteration of DNA sequences and modifies gene function. Crispr could be used to turn bacterium or viruses machinery against itself.
These problems are bound to cause suffering until an appropriate solution is found.
Known problems without imaginable solutions
Known problems without readily imaginable or implementable solutions include:
- Nuclear weapons: Governments in possession of nuclear weapons are unlikely to abandon them. The technology cannot be unlearned. We can only hope that the number of nuclear warheads is reduced.
- Artificial intelligence: Futurologists believe that AI will eventually put an end to work itself. How would we react to a world without work?
Safety protocols aimed at preventing accidental nuclear conflict and ethical standards in AI development will be useful, although rogue agents can still sow chaos.
Problems without solutions
Some known problems cannot be addressed by humans on Earth, and include:
- The eventual exhaustion of hydrogen in the Sun and the star's transformation.
- A sudden appearance of a black hole that could consume our planet.
- A burst of gamma rays from a close supernova that destroys our ozone layer and expose us to ultraviolet rays from the Sun.
- A surprise asteroid strike that destroys a large part of the planet and blacks out the Sun.
We don't have implementable solutions to these problems, but we also cannot worry about everything. We can only address issues as they arise.
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We're not immune to collapse
Societies of the past and present are just complex systems comprising of people and technology.
Although we have better technologies, we are not immune to the threats that faced our ancestors. If anything, our technological abilities bring more challenges. Our globalized economic system may be more likely to cause a crisis to spread.
A roadmap of past collapses
Although there is no conclusive explanation of why civilizations collapse, there are factors that can contribute.
- Climatic change can result in disaster, resulting in crop failure, starvation, and desertification. The Akkadians, the Mayan, the Roman Empire, and many others coincided with abrupt climatic changes.
- Ecological collapse theory: When societies overdo the carrying capacity of their environment, e.g., excessive deforestation, water pollution, soil degradation, and the loss of biodiversity.
- Inequality and oligarchy: As a population increases, the supply of labor outstrips demand, workers become cheap and society top-heavy. Political violence follows.
- Complexity: Accumulated complexity and bureaucracy eventually leads to collapse. The returns from complexity eventually reach a point of diminishing returns, causing collapse.
- External shocks: War, natural disasters, famine, and plagues. The Aztec Empire was brought to its knees by Spanish invaders. Early agrarian states were passing due to deadly epidemics.
- Randomness: Collapse is often random and independent of age.
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