The details that form our reality - Deepstash
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The details that form our reality

When we don't understand the details, it can cause much trouble. If a nation is overconfident that they will win a war, they will fight more wars. An investor that is to sure of their estimate of an asset's value will trade too much.

The world is too big to process and understand everything. We have to oversimplify the world to be able to function in it. The difficulty is that we don't think our models of how the world works are oversimplified. We believe they are correct. This creates a hidden risk.

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Overconfidence bias

Overconfidence bias

Most people think they know more than they really do.

Researchers showed that people believe they understand familiar manufactured objects much better than they really do. For instance, if you think you understand how a can opener works, try to draw a diagram of a can ...

131

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The hidden risk of not understanding the details of our reality

Focusing on specific details in a complex system while ignoring the amount of detail contained within the system may at first show a benefit. However, it can create a massive collapse in the long-run.

In the late 18th century, the German government wanted to grow "scientific forests" t...

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Managing the overconfidence bias

  • Embrace meta-rationality. Know the limits of your own understanding, know when to consult experts, which experts to defer to, and when to admit that something is impossible for anyone to know.
  • Allow for uncertainty. Confident statements seem more p...

140

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cmary

Living the life.

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  • How simple something looks is not a reflection of how simple it is to use. If complexity is a constant, then there are trade-offs.
  • Things don't always need to be very simple for users. When a product or service is too simple, users can feel robbed of control. We should recognize th...

#6 THOUGHT: The Sins Of Our Minds

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We normally don't notice ourselves wanting far too much when it comes to admiration, money, acclaim. It happens - as it tend to with sins - slowly and inperceptibly. Because when we are proud, we stop noticing how we humiliate others. Then there's no wonder why we build u...

Alan Watts On Uncertainty And Insecurity

Most people are afraid of breathing, unable to exhale after they inhale, due to the uncertainty and insecurity of life. They are afraid to live, to let go and are not sure that the next breath will come, so they do what is logical: Hold their own breath.

Our fundamental misunderstanding is...

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