Why Life Can’t Be Simpler
To do a difficult thing in the simplest way, we need a lot of options. When looking an any set of tools for a task, such as a digital photo editing program, a novice will see complexity. A professional sees a range of different tools, each of which is easy to use. They know how to use each option to make a task easier. Without an array of options, the task will be more complicated.
Complexity is a constant. It cannot be eliminated, only moved somewhere else. When something looks simple to use, it can be very complex inside. When something is simple inside, it can result in a complex surface.
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In many ways, technology improves and enriches our lives. Yet, there is a sense that we have lost control of our technology in some ways and end up victims of its unintended consequences.
When we introduce a new piece of technology, it is wise to consider if we are interfering with a bigger system. If we do, we should reflect on it's wider consequences.
But, if the factors involved get complex enough, we cannot anticipate them with accuracy. Understanding revenge effects is mostly a reminder of the value of caution and not of specific risks.
We all make decisions. However, few of us realize that the process we use to make decisions is more important than the analysis we put into the decision.
When it comes to decisions, organizations rely on gathering data and analyzing the decision. People believe that analysis reduces biases, but most business decisions made this way turned out to be poor decisions.
Research shows that good analysis from managers who have good judgment won't necessarily produce good decisions.
Analysis alone does not yield good decisions as the people who put it together have a subconscious bias and interest in a particular outcome.
Instead, a disciplined decision process involves guarding against decision-making biases by exploring and discussing major uncertainties or discussing contradictory viewpoints.