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How to Start Working Out at Home

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Structure of circular reasoning

The most simple form of begging the question: A is true because A is true.

Circular reasoning can also be a bit longer:

  • A is true because B is true, and B is true because A is true.
  • A is true because B is true, ...

Unprepared for the downside

Unprepared for the downside

Optimists often fail to have a Plan B because they believe they can control all the elements within Plan A.

Pessimists can alert a team regarding the risks that would require a Plan B.

Conjunctive events

  • Broader categories are always more probable than their subsets. It's more likely someone has a pet than they have a cat. It's more likely someone likes coffee than they like cappuccinos. The extension rule in probability theory thus states that if B is a subset of A, B cannot ...

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