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This bias or error is about how one can systematically overestimate their chances of success. The probability of your start up being successful, of you becoming a royalty winning writer or becoming the next Led Zeppelin are next to zero, and yet, we ignore it. The reason we ignore it is the success stories that we hear about. Let's say , we hear of one Soldier who made it out of the war, a hero, and alive, and we assume that war is safe.
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It's very common that each and every one of us makes mistakes, what the author, Rolf Dobelli says, experts call as cognitive errors.
Some of these errors are:
We tend to try to see patterns where none exist
There are lot of stuff in which we may think there is a pattern but more often than not theu are just conicidental.
Humans are oversens...
Although this book may not hold the key to happiness, at the very least it acts as insurance against too much unhappiness.
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It's our tendency to concentrate on the people who end up winning —the survivors—and mistakenly assume that ambitious goals led to their success while removing from pur view all of the people who had the same objective but didn’t succeed.
When you solely focus on success, survivorsh...
Survivorship bias is a logical error that twists our understanding of the world and leads to a wrong understanding of cause and effect.
We fall into survivorship bias when we assume that success stories tell the entire story of a product/business, while we don't properly consider past fail...
We tend to overestimate the chances of success because success stories are more likely to be reported, while failure stories do not.
"Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books never sell."
How to elude the survivorship bias?
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