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Survivorship Bias
This bias or error is about how one can systematically overestimate their chances of success. The probability of your start up being successful, of you becoming a royalty winning writer or becoming the next Led Zeppelin are next to zero, and yet, we ignore it. The reason we ignore it is the success stories that we hear about. Let's say , we hear of one Soldier who made it out of the war, a hero, and alive, and we assume that war is safe.
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Swimmer's body illusion
- Cosmetics products are sold by beautiful models and the products have no causal effect on their good looks
- Good universities are good because they take good students in and not the other way around
- And the main analogy from which the error ge...
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Introduction- Cognitive errors
It's very common that each and every one of us makes mistakes, what the author, Rolf Dobelli says, experts call as cognitive errors.
Some of these errors are:
- We overestimate our knowledge more often
- Fear of losing, drives us much more than gaining something of s...
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477 reads
Clustering Illusion
We tend to try to see patterns where none exist
- Patterns in clouds
- Faces in food
- Patterns in stokc markets
There are lot of stuff in which we may think there is a pattern but more often than not theu are just conicidental.
Humans are oversens...
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Although this book may not hold the key to happiness, at the very least it acts as insurance against too much unhappiness.
ROLF DOBELLI
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307 reads
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Survivorship Bias
It's our tendency to concentrate on the people who end up winning —the survivors—and mistakenly assume that ambitious goals led to their success while removing from pur view all of the people who had the same objective but didn’t succeed.
When you solely focus on success, survivorsh...
Survivorship Bias
Survivorship bias is a logical error that twists our understanding of the world and leads to a wrong understanding of cause and effect.
We fall into survivorship bias when we assume that success stories tell the entire story of a product/business, while we don't properly consider past fail...
Survivorship Bias
We tend to overestimate the chances of success because success stories are more likely to be reported, while failure stories do not.
"Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books never sell."
How to elude the survivorship bias?
- Do the digg...
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