Survivorship Bias - Deepstash
Survivorship Bias

Survivorship Bias

This bias or error is about how one can systematically overestimate their chances of success. The probability of your start up being successful, of you becoming a royalty winning writer or becoming the next Led Zeppelin are next to zero, and yet, we ignore it. The reason we ignore it is the success stories that we hear about. Let's say , we hear of one Soldier who made it out of the war, a hero, and alive, and we assume that war is safe.

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MORE IDEAS FROM The Art of Thinking Clearly

Swimmer's body illusion

  • Cosmetics products are sold by beautiful models and the products have no causal effect on their good looks
  • Good universities are good because they take good students in and not the other way around
  • And the main analogy from which the error gets its name , swimmers with great physique are good swimmers in most cases, and not the other way around

In short , the intent to seek relation between every choice and corresponding results is erroneous as we maybe making wrong assumptions

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Clustering Illusion

We tend to try to see patterns where none exist

  • Patterns in clouds
  • Faces in food
  • Patterns in stokc markets

There are lot of stuff in which we may think there is a pattern but more often than not theu are just conicidental.

Humans are oversensitive to patterns

When you think you have a pattern, consider it luck and the analyse it or have it analysed through and expert. Try to disprove it.

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Introduction- Cognitive errors

It's very common that each and every one of us makes mistakes, what the author, Rolf Dobelli says, experts call as cognitive errors.

Some of these errors are:

  • We overestimate our knowledge more often
  • Fear of losing, drives us much more than gaining something of similar value
  • We tend to adjust our behaviour in the presence of others
  • Exceptional stories make us neglect the average success rate of an action
  • And many such more...

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Although this book may not hold the key to happiness, at the very least it acts as insurance against too much unhappiness.

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RELATED IDEA

We make quick assumptions, errors because of not seeing evidence and so many more erroneous thanks. This doesn't mean that our brain isn't smart, but that it helped us survive a thousand years ago and that our brain is still wired for the homo sapiens of 10.000 BC.

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We tend to overestimate the chances of success because success stories are more likely to be reported, while failure stories do not.

"Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books never sell."

How to elude the survivorship bias?

  • Do the digging yourself.
  • Many successful individuals or teams share "success factors" with other winners and likewise, many failed individuals or teams share the same characteristics and traits as those who succeeds.
  • Guard against survivorship bias by visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers.

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WHAT IS CRYPTO ART?

Crypto art is a digital art form. It is treated like physical artwork collections, and owners may have verified ownership of a piece of crypto art. The art world has long had established systems for collection paintings or sculptures.

But until now, although it was produced, there was no clear way for people to collect digital artwork. Crypto art and NFTs allow you to do just that.

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