Why we trip over the planning fallacy
We are prone to choosing the most optimistic timetable to complete a project while doubting other information that could change our predictions. Even if we are given evidence of how we've been wrong in the past, we believe that our current forecasts are optimistic.
The problem with our predictions is that we treat every task like it's a new problem. Then, we construct a tale of how we will complete this task but ignore the evidence from similar projects done in the past.
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"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. " ~ Abraham Lincoln
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The planning fallacy
Is our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task. Estimation mistakes can usually be attributed to 2 key factors:
- Failing to consider how long it’s taken us to complete similar tasks in the past.
- Assuming that we won’t run int...
The planning fallacy
The planning fallacy is the likelihood to underestimate the time it will take to finish a future task despite knowing that similar projects have taken longer in the past. For example, writers underestimate how long it will take to complete a novel; product managers miscalcula...
The Planning Fallacy
We tend to underestimate the time it will take to complete a future task despite knowing that previous tasks have taken longer.
What you can do about it:
- Break projects down into smaller parts and estimat...
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