False Positive Errors And False Negative Errors
As the actor in this hypothetical scenario, we are faced with two familiar choices: We can (a) assume the noise was just wind and go about our business, or (b) assume the disturbance was made by a dangerous predator and get out of dodge. If we assume that the noise was a predator but it turns out to simply be the wind, we have made a false positive (i.e., a Type I error) and have erred on the side of safety. If, however, we assume that the noise was the wind and it turns out to be a predator, we have made a false negative (i.e., a Type II error), and the cost could be our life.
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The Believing Brain: From Ghosts to Gods to Politics and Conspiracies - How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths
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As a 'belief engine', the brain is always seeking to find meaning in the information that pours into it. Once it has constructed a belief, it rationalizes it with explanations, almost always after the event. The brain thus becomes invested in the beliefs, and reinforces them by looking for supporting evidence while blinding itself to anything contrary. Michael Shermer describes this process as “belief-dependent realism” — what we believe determines our reality, not the other way around.
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