Risk and preparation - Deepstash

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Risk and preparation

Risk is more than something bad happening. How risky something is, depends on whether you're prepared for it. A small thing out of the blue can be deadly.

We should also remember this when thinking about the economy and our investments.

The biggest economic risk

The biggest economic risk is what no one’s talking about. If no one is talking about it, no one will be prepared, and the damage will be amplified when it arrives.

In recent years, people cited the trade wars and election as risks. It is the same risks, repeated over and over. People may be worried, but no one is surprised. A business may be concerned, but many have prepared. Compare that to what, in hindsight, have actually been the biggest risks.

When risks turn into disasters

What turn events into disasters is that few discussed them even moments before they occurred. They were surprises. People affected did not prepare, either mentally or with actions. They could only react, often surrounded by panic.

Two things happen with surprises:

  • You become vulnerable.
  • Surprises shake the beliefs that leave you paranoid and pessimistic.

A better direction

  • Expect that risk will arrive when you don't expect it. Don't rely exclusively on forecasts – almost all of which are either nonsense or about things that are well known.
  • Give yourself a wide berth. If you think recessions will reduce your wealth by 20%, design your allocation to withstand a decline of 40% or more taking into account that the powerful downturn will be the one you didn't expect.

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