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Risk is more than something bad happening. How risky something is, depends on whether you're prepared for it. A small thing out of the blue can be deadly.
We should also remember this when thinking about the economy and our investments.
The biggest economic risk is what no one’s talking about. If no one is talking about it, no one will be prepared, and the damage will be amplified when it arrives.
In recent years, people cited the trade wars and election as risks. It is the same risks, repeated over and over. People may be worried, but no one is surprised. A business may be concerned, but many have prepared. Compare that to what, in hindsight, have actually been the biggest risks.
What turn events into disasters is that few discussed them even moments before they occurred. They were surprises. People affected did not prepare, either mentally or with actions. They could only react, often surrounded by panic.
Two things happen with surprises:
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