Learn more about problemsolving with this collection
Understanding the importance of decision-making
Identifying biases that affect decision-making
Analyzing the potential outcomes of a decision
The conjunctive events bias
We often overestimate the likelihood of events that must happen in conjunction with one another.
We are optimistic in our estimation of the cost and schedule and surprised when something inevitably goes wrong.
148
745 reads
MORE IDEAS ON THIS
Consider your assumptions
Just because we know and understand the concept of conjunctive events bias, we are not automatically immune to it.
When we are planning, it is useful to run through our assumptions with this bias in mind. We should be more pessimistic about our plans and consider the worst-case s...
153
435 reads
The best plans often fail
A plan is like a system. A change in one component of a system will likely impact the functionality of other parts of the system.
The more steps involved in a plan, the higher the chance that something will go wrong and cause delays and setbacks. For this reason, home remodeling and ne...
167
425 reads
Conjunctive events
- Broader categories are always more probable than their subsets. It's more likely someone has a pet than they have a cat. It's more likely someone likes coffee than they like cappuccinos. The extension rule in probability theory thus states that if B is a subset of A, B cannot ...
144
382 reads
CURATED FROM
CURATED BY
Never stop learning. Never stop educating yourself. When you stop learning, you stop growing & maturing!
Related collections
More like this
The Impact Bias
It's present when we tend to overestimate the length or intensity of happiness that major events will create. The Impact Bias is one example of affective forecasting, which is a social psychology phenomenon that refers to our generally terrible ability as humans to predict our future emoti...
Extreme events and happiness
Extreme positive and extreme negative events don't actually influence our long-term levels of happiness nearly as much as we think they would. But we have a strong tendency to overestimate the impact that extreme events will have on our lives.
Optimism Bias
Is our tendency to overestimate the odds of our own success compared to other people's.
Overly optimistic predictions can be dangerous, leading us to waste time and resources pursuing unrealistic goals. In the real world of business, things don't always work out for the best, and it...
Read & Learn
20x Faster
without
deepstash
with
deepstash
with
deepstash
Access to 200,000+ ideas
—
Access to the mobile app
—
Unlimited idea saving & library
—
—
Unlimited history
—
—
Unlimited listening to ideas
—
—
Downloading & offline access
—
—
Personalized recommendations
—
—
Supercharge your mind with one idea per day
Enter your email and spend 1 minute every day to learn something new.
I agree to receive email updates