Unlikely Optimism: The Conjunctive Events Bias
We often overestimate the likelihood of events that must happen in conjunction with one another.
We are optimistic in our estimation of the cost and schedule and surprised when something inevitably goes wrong.
This is a professional note extracted from an online article.
Read more efficiently
Save what inspires you
A plan is like a system. A change in one component of a system will likely impact the functionality of other parts of the system.
The more steps involved in a plan, the higher the chance that something will go wrong and cause delays and setbacks. For this reason, home remodeling and new product ventures seldom finish on time.
Just because we know and understand the concept of conjunctive events bias, we are not automatically immune to it.
When we are planning, it is useful to run through our assumptions with this bias in mind. We should be more pessimistic about our plans and consider the worst-case scenario.
SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:
We surround ourselves with it: We tend to like people who think like us; if we agree with someone's beliefs, we're more likely to be friends with them.
This makes sense, but it means ...
It's a thinking mistake and it occurs when we confuse selection factors with results.
Professional swimmers don't have perfect bodies because they train extensively. Rather, they are good swimmers because of their physiques.
It plays on this tendency of ours to emphasize loss over gain.
The term sunk cost refers to any cost that has been paid already and cannot be recovered. The reason we can't ignore the cost, even though it's already been paid, is that we're wired to feel loss far more strongly than gain.
5 more ideas
"There is no inherent value in any piece of data because all information is meaningless in itself. Why? Because in..."
Our brains like to fill up incomplete information based on our prejudice and confirmation bias.
As all data is inherently incomplete, we use our minds to fill the missing information, based on the existing data we have, and that can go obverse.
4 more ideas
Cognitive Biases are a collection of faulty and illogical ways of thinking which are hardwired in the brain, most of which we aren’t aware of.
The idea of cognitive biases was invented ...
It's a tendency to heavily weigh the moment which is closer to the present, as compared to something in the near or distant future.
Example: If you are offered a choice of $150 right now or $180 after 30 days, you would be more inclined to choose the money you are offered right now. However, if we take the present moment out of the equation, and put this offer in the distant future, where you are offered $150 in 12 months or $180 in 13 months, your choice is likely to be the latter one.
5 more ideas