How we can make good decision - Deepstash

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Why predicting our future feelings is so difficult

How we can make good decision

  • When we have a decision to make, it is recommended to solicit the views of people who have had the experience you're considering.
  • We can also ask the opinions of those around us since people tend to take a longer-term view when thinking about other people's choices.
  • The kind of questions we ask is also important. Instead of asking if you should take the new job, ask what they think your day-to-day life will be like if you take it.

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Anchoring Bias

A common occurrence of heuristics in which we use an initial starting point as an anchor that is then adjusted to yield a final estimate or value.

Example: estimating the value of an o...

Being Too Optimistic

People who are told that the risk of something bad happening is lower than they expected, tend to adjust their predictions to match the new information. But they ignore the new information when the risk is higher.

Part of this overly optimistic outlook stems from our natural tendency to believe that bad things happen to other people, but not to us. 

You Often Make Poor Comparisons

Sometimes we make poor comparisons or the compared items are not representative or equal.

We often decide based on rapid comparisons without really thinking about our options. In order to avoid bad decisions, relying on logic and thoughtful examination of the options can sometimes be more important than relying on your immediate "gut reaction."

Affective forecasting

It refers to how we predict our future emotions and how certain life events will affect them.

We’re generally pretty bad at it—and that impacts our productivity, our goal setting, and ...

We're bad at predicting our feelings

The main barriers to accurate affective forecasting:

  • Impact Bias: Your tendency to overestimate the intensity and duration of future emotions. 
  • Projection Bias: However you feel in the present, you tend to project that onto the future. 
  • Focalism: When picturing an event in the future, you tend to focus only on that event, to the exclusion of everything else that may happen.

“Our ability to look into the future and think about what will make us most happy is the way that we get to a present that pleases us.”

“Our ability to look into the future and think about what will make us most happy is the way that we get to a present that pleases us.”

The Mediterranean diet
The Mediterranean diet

It is not a weight-loss regime such as the Atkins or Dukan diets. It is actually not a prescriptive diet at all, rather a pattern of eating.

It is based on a rural life where people at...

Principles of the Mediterranean diet
  • It is based on large amounts of fruit and vegetables, legumes, whole grains and especially olive oil.
  • Fish and seafood depends on how close to the sea you live.
  • Chicken, eggs and small amounts of dairy, such as cheese and yoghurt, are there in moderation.
  • The diet includes a small amount of wine with meals
  • It is quite a high-carbohydrate diet (pasta, bread and potatoes).
  • Red meat and sweets would rarely be consumed.
  • It is accompanied by quite a lot of physical activity. 
The Mediterranean diet is more than food on a plate
  • It emphasises values of hospitality, neighbourliness, intercultural dialogue and creativity, and a way of life guided by respect for diversity.
  • Shared family meals help people eat well and avoid excess, while the TV dinner habit is linked to obesity.
  • It involves a set of skills, knowledge, rituals, symbols and traditions concerning crops, harvesting, fishing, animal husbandry, conservation, processing, cooking and particularly the sharing and consumption of food.