Learn more about leadershipandmanagement with this collection
Understanding the importance of decision-making
Identifying biases that affect decision-making
Analyzing the potential outcomes of a decision
When we make bad decisions is usually because of these 4:
It describes the process that “wraps” around your usual way of making decisions, helping to protect you from some of the villains and biases related to decision making:
Focusing is great for analyzing alternatives but terrible for spotting them. When we focus we sacrifice peripheral vision.
Multitracking involves considering several options simultaneously. Multitracking has another advantage too, one that is more unexpected. It feels better.
When you consider multiple options simultaneously, you learn the shape of the problem. To get the benefits of multitracking, we need to produce options that are meaningfully distinct.
Reality-test the assumptions you’re making by developing the discipline to consider the opposite of our initial instincts. It begins with a willingness to spark constructive disagreement.
We sometimes make bad decisions because we are too much into the weeds in our head. There are 2 main views we hold:
The outside view is more accurate, but most people gravitate toward the inside view.
Sometimes we think we’re gathering information when we’re actually fishing for support.
To use 10/10/10, think about your decisions on three different time frames: How will I feel about it 10 minutes from now? How about 10 months from now? How about 10 years from now?
Conducting a 10/10/10 analysis doesn’t presuppose that the long-term perspective is the right one. It simply ensures that short-term emotion isn’t the only voice at the table.
Our decisions are often altered by two subtle short-term emotions:
Loosing sucks and we subconsciously make decisions to avoid losses on the short term, even when we amplify losses on the long term.
The future is not a “point”—a single scenario that we must predict. It is a range. We should bookend the future, considering a range of outcomes from very bad to very good.
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