How Probabilistic Thinking Can Help You Make Great Decisions - Deepstash

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How Probabilistic Thinking Can Help You Make Great Decisions

How Probabilistic Thinking Can Help You Make Great Decisions

What every venture capital capitalist of all time has in common is that each of them missed almost all of the great deals of their generation.

The bad news is that you are going to make that kind of mistake. But the good news is that you don’t have to score 100%; you can take chances

Success or failure is not at the unit of an individual investment. It’s at the level of a portfolio, and these portfolio effects are everywhere; level of a fund, at the level of a strategy, etc

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Marc asks the following questions to better understand claims about the negative effects of technology:

You can “borrow” mental models of people you admire; Ask yourself, what would they say in the face of any particular challenge you are trying to solve.

In Marc’s view, the education system is completely unfixable

Learning from experience is natural, but you have to understand the domain in which you are operating

It’s basically a battle between top-down hierarchy and lateral network building, 

The WEIRDest People in the World by Joseph Henrich

Based on 1984, a novel by George Orwell technology is used to control the masses. Technology with the potential to disrupt hierarchical control instead ends up enabling top-down control.

The new kids on the block are educated on the internet, their depth of technological, financial, and cultural knowledge is very broad. They are idealists and have an intuitive sense of how new technologies could be harnessed to improve the world, and they actually have the power to do it.

If the strategy involves 10 bets, you don’t get evaluated based on any particular bet, or even an average, yet the total performance of the basket investment

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An anti-mentor is someone who, when they look down on you or disagree with you, you know you're doing something right.

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