Tales of authors self-publishing bestsellers or college athletes signing with the major leagues for millions are so inspiring that people tend to overestimate their own chances of duplicating such career trajectories. This bias makes most folks focus on the few stars who soar, not the millions of ordinary humans who falter. This tendency is quite pernicious among investors and entrepreneurs. Dose yourself in reality and avoid this pitfall “by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments and careers.”
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Dobelli shared some common thinking mistakes. Knowing these errors won’t help you avoid them completely, but it will help you make better decisions – or at least teach you where you slipped.
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We tend to overestimate the chances of success because success stories are more likely to be reported, while failure stories do not.
"Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books never sell."
How to elude the survivorship bias?
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