Dealing With Uncertainty - Deepstash

Dealing With Uncertainty

Very few ideas are absolutely true. You want to get as close to the truth as you can with the available information.

  • Use "grey thinking". It is the ability to put things on a gradient from "probably true" to "probably false".
  • Bayesian updating. Start with priori odds (knowledge based on previous experience), and update the odds based on what you learn thereafter.

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Sometimes the most important life lessons are the ones we end up learning the hard way.

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Thomas Bayes'd thought experiment

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He wondered how he could predict the probability of a future event if he only knew how many times it had occurred, or not, in the past. Bayes figured out that even when it comes to uncertain outcomes, we can update our knowledge by incorporating new, relevant information as it becomes available.

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