Dealing With Uncertainty - Deepstash

Dealing With Uncertainty

Very few ideas are absolutely true. You want to get as close to the truth as you can with the available information.

  • Use "grey thinking". It is the ability to put things on a gradient from "probably true" to "probably false".
  • Bayesian updating. Start with priori odds (knowledge based on previous experience), and update the odds based on what you learn thereafter.

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Sometimes the most important life lessons are the ones we end up learning the hard way.

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Dealing With Uncertainty

  • Prevent it: Do what you can to minimize uncertainty by training like you want to race.Β 
  • Manage it: Develop a mantra or automatic actions to fall back when uncertainty strikes.Β 
  • Grow from it: View uncertainty as an opportunity to grow. Welcome it on the ...

Thomas Bayes'd thought experiment

Thomas Bayes'd thought experiment

He wondered how he could predict the probability of a future event if he only knew how many times it had occurred, or not, in the past. Bayes figured out that even when it comes to uncertain outcomes, we can update our knowledge by incorporating new, relevant information as it becomes available.

Strategies for dealing with uncertainty in business

  • Use analytic techniques that don’t require high accuracy.
  • Prepare for multiple outcomes
  • Find and rely on the predictable elements of the situation
  • Focus your evaluation of initiatives on the inputs (the quality of the process that went into...

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