Develop a "Probabilistic" Approach to Managing Uncertainty

What’s more important than how much data you have is how it frames the way you think.

Some leader when they're under pressure to appear decisive, approach complex situations with simple rules or analogies, selectively using data to justify poor judgment calls.

He wondered how he could predict the probability of a future event if he only knew how many times it had occurred, or not, in the past. Bayes figured out that even when it comes to uncertain outcomes, we can update our knowledge by incorporating new, relevant information as it becomes available.

His theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event.