The Art of Thinking Clearly Summary

Never underestimate the hard work and lower probability of success, just because we are shown more successful people than many more actual failures.

It does not mean, in any way, that you should not dream big. It just says that don't get overawed by the number of success stories you read and assume that success would be easy. No one prints the failure stories.

It is a tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes compatible with our existing theories.

Warren Buffet has seen people losing money with this because they ignore facts that contradict the theory in the mind of the investor.

Disconfirming evidence must be sought out to beat this theory.

If you ever find yourself in a tight unanimous group, you must speak your mind, even if your team does not like it, and even if it means risking expulsion from the warm nest.

And if you lead a group, appoint someone as devil's advocate.

He or she will not be the most popular member of the team, but definitely the most important.

Confirmation Bias refers to our tendency to interpret new information in a way that supports our existing theories and beliefs, rather than objectively considering all the facts.

• We often filter out or ignore any information that contradicts our current views, leading to a strong and often disproportionate support for our preconceived ideas.
• Indications to the contrary are quickly dismissed as exceptions or special cases.
• Our bias is often influenced by our emotions and past experiences.

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored!

⚡To overcome confirmation bias, write down your beliefs and consciously seek disconfirming evidence.

• Set aside preconceived notions
• Be open-minded to opposing viewpoints
• Challenge your own beliefs

Next time, before jumping to a conclusion, make sure you have thoroughly examined all evidence.

Nobody is immune to cognitive errors, unconscious thinking habits that lead to false conclusions or poor decisions. Mere mortals are prone to an array of common thinking errors and will consistently overestimate their chances of success, prefer stories to facts, confuse the message with the messenger, become overwhelmed by choices and ignore alternative options. Knowing these errors won’t help you avoid them completely, but it will help you make better decisions – or at least teach you where you slipped.

Human beings are prone to cognitive errors, or barriers to clear, logical thinking. Everyone experiences flawed patterns in the process of reasoning. In fact, many of these common mistakes have a history that goes back centuries. Even experts fall prey to such glitches, which might explain why supposedly savvy financiers hold investments for too long. Identifying “systematic cognitive errors” will help you avoid them. Becoming familiar with these pitfalls will improve your ability to make astute decisions. Below are selections of cognitive errors to avoid their consequences:

Tales of authors self-publishing bestsellers or college athletes signing with the major leagues for millions are so inspiring that people tend to overestimate their own chances of duplicating such career trajectories. This bias makes most folks focus on the few stars who soar, not the millions of ordinary humans who falter. This tendency is quite pernicious among investors and entrepreneurs. Dose yourself in reality and avoid this pitfall “by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments and careers.”

On your journey to success, it's easy to look at the successful person and judge how easy success is. But you don't consider the fact that thousands of people just like you are also persuing the same thing. How many of them actually made it till the end?

Be it a musician, a writer, or anything you aspire to become, you will only come accross the names of people who succeeded in their lives. But you'll never come across the burial grounds which houses 10,000 times more aspirants who couldn't make it to the finish line.

The media is not interested in digging around in the graveyards of the unsuccessful. Nor is this it's job. To elude the Survivorship bias, you must do the digging yourself.

It's very common that each and every one of us makes mistakes, what the author, Rolf Dobelli says, experts call as cognitive errors.

Some of these errors are:

• We overestimate our knowledge more often
• Fear of losing, drives us much more than gaining something of similar value
• We tend to adjust our behaviour in the presence of others
• Exceptional stories make us neglect the average success rate of an action
• And many such more...

This bias or error is about how one can systematically overestimate their chances of success. The probability of your start up being successful, of you becoming a royalty winning writer or becoming the next Led Zeppelin are next to zero, and yet, we ignore it. The reason we ignore it is the success stories that we hear about. Let's say , we hear of one Soldier who made it out of the war, a hero, and alive, and we assume that war is safe.

Success is more visible than failure, so people are systematically overestimating chances of succeeding.

News about startups getting funded makes people forget how high the rate of startup failure actually is.

Professional swimmers have perfect bodies not because of their training. Instead, they become good swimmers because of their physique.

Similarly, students from best universities are relatively more successful not just because of the quality of its education, but rather because of their highly selective admission.

People mistake what determines the selection with the result.

When we have invested some time, effort, or money, while the result is not as expected, we have tendency to carry on, because of that initial investment.

This is irrational because the expense has happened and we can’t change the past.

Decision about the future must be guided by expected cost and benefit from that point forward.

We tend to overestimate the chances of success because success stories are more likely to be reported, while failure stories do not.

"Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books never sell."

How to elude the survivorship bias?

• Do the digging yourself.
• Many successful individuals or teams share "success factors" with other winners and likewise, many failed individuals or teams share the same characteristics and traits as those who succeeds.
• Guard against survivorship bias by visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers.

Swimmer's body illusion is whenever we confuse selection factors with results.

Some people are born with selection factors that makes them eligible for the success that they have now achieved. For example a swimmer might not have a perfect body because he swims, but because he was genetically equipped with the appropriate physique.

So before deciding to take on the plunge to emulate another person's actions or choices, hoping for the same end result, look in the mirror -- and be honest about what you see.

When you start seeing a pattern in something, always consider the possibility that the occurence is simply by chance.

We make quick assumptions, errors because of not seeing evidence and so many more erroneous thanks. This doesn't mean that our brain isn't smart, but that it helped us survive a thousand years ago and that our brain is still wired for the homo sapiens of 10.000 BC.

Well this will help a lot if you find time to read it...

This is an amazing book if you want I can explain more in the below ideas..

The Art of Thinking Clearly is a 2013 book by the Swiss writer Rolf Dobelli which describes in short chapters 99 of the most common thinking errors - ranging from cognitive biases to envy and social distortions.

Rolf Dobelli (July 15, 1966) born in Luzern, Switzerland, is a Swiss author and entrepreneur. Dobelli is the author of The Art of Thinking Clearly (2011). Dobelli is a member of Edge Foundation, Inc., PEN International and the Royal Society of Arts. He is the founder of the World Minds foundation.

Your conclusion after a distressful event usually ends up something like this: “John, the product manager, is responsible for the slow sales this season – nothing else. We should fire him!” Or, “I have a flat tire because my husband failed to check the tires this morning.”

We tend to blame one thing, or one person when something bad happens. But usually, there’s more going on.

News, friends, commercials, street signs, the words printed on our 5 dollars t-shirt from the local store, the sticky note on your cubicle.

Everything matters.

Everything we consume affects our judgment and can rearrange the thoughts inside our heads.

Sometimes you don’t need to get a complete 360-degree view of the situation. Actually, a lot of times, when something important needs to be decided, it’s best to remain on your own. With your own thoughts to make your mind.