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Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias is when we see past events as being predictable. But that is because we now know what happened.

When you give feedback to a person about something he did, you know the facts. That means how you frame your criticism can be distorted. You might have done the same thing if you were in his position at the time.

When you create a change in your organisation that has a positive outcome, you may say you knew it all along. But in the long run, we start to think our predictions are perfect, and we may think we don't need to learn more.

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MORE IDEAS FROM THE SAME ARTICLE

Common knowledge tries to describe the things everyone knows. For example, knowledge about money, that our planet circles around the sun, that 1 + 1 = 2.

This mental model explains that when we have two explanations for the same thing, we should prefer the simpler explanation.

The purpose of the thought experiment is to delve deeper into a given field to improve your knowledge, uncover what you don't know, and strengthen your understanding of the world.

The availability heuristic states that we make decisions and form conclusions based on the most recent information we gathered.

Learning is not as easy as owning a device, internet connection and a page full of articles and videos.

We think we know much more than we really do.

The Feynman learning technique is not a mental model but a way to approach a subject to learn it faster and better.

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I have always been fascinated by mental models. The same way scientists are looking for a theory of everything, I sometimes wonder if there is a universal theory of the mind. An all-encompassing, coherent framework that would fully explain and link together all aspects of our biology and psychology.

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