Hindsight bias - Deepstash
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Back to School Basics for Parents

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Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias is when we see past events as being predictable. But that is because we now know what happened.

When you give feedback to a person about something he did, you know the facts. That means how you frame your criticism can be distorted. You might have done the same thing if you were in his position at the time.

When you create a change in your organisation that has a positive outcome, you may say you knew it all along. But in the long run, we start to think our predictions are perfect, and we may think we don't need to learn more.

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The Feynman learning technique

The Feynman learning technique is not a mental model but a way to approach a subject to learn it faster and better.

  • Pretend you're teaching a concept to a child. Write down in simple terms everything you know about the subject.
  • Identify the gaps.

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Circle of Competence

Circle of Competence

We think we know much more than we really do.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger developed the Circle of Competence. This mental model helps define what you know and what your limitations are. It enables you to avoid making decisions about subjects y...

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Thought experiment

Thought experiment

The purpose of the thought experiment is to delve deeper into a given field to improve your knowledge, uncover what you don't know, and strengthen your understanding of the world.

For example, a madman has tied 5 innocent people to a trolley track. An empty trolley car ...

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Understanding mental models

Understanding mental models

Learning is not as easy as owning a device, internet connection and a page full of articles and videos.

Without a proper strategy, you may know isolated facts about everything, but it won't positively contribute to your future development. Understanding the seven mental mod...

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Availability heuristic

The availability heuristic states that we make decisions and form conclusions based on the most recent information we gathered.

For example, if everybody starts investing in an "innovative" fund, you might do it yourself because of everything you've recently heard. But ...

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Common knowledge

Common knowledge

Common knowledge tries to describe the things everyone knows. For example, knowledge about money, that our planet circles around the sun, that 1 + 1 = 2.

However, common knowledge won't get you far in life. When you want to succeed in life, you want to stand out because you compete ...

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Occam’s Razor

Occam’s Razor

This mental model explains that when we have two explanations for the same thing, we should prefer the simpler explanation.

For example, when you're learning how to operate a complicated machine or reading a book in a field where you are a beginner, find the simpler exp...

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CURATED FROM

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kinn

Dreamer who loves reading, travelling and meeting new people.

The mental models for learning are your weapons to help you understand more than the basics.

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Hindsight Bias

Hindsight Bias

Hindsight bias is a false belief that our judgement is better than it actually is when we look back and see the events. Reality appears more predictable after an event happens. This is also known as the β€˜Knew-it-all-along effect’.

This bias makes people less accountable fo...

The Hindsight Bias

A bias that many people including historians, experts and physicians encounter is the hindsight bias, which makes them think they knew how an event would turn out before it happened. It is the tendency for people to perceive past outcomes as having been more predictable ...

The many faces of the memory bias

  • Rosy retrospection bias. We often remember the past as having been better than it really was.
  • Consistency bias. We wrongly remember our past attitudes and behaviour as similar to our present attitudes and behaviour.
  • Mood-congruent ...

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