Breathing deeply in through the nose, into the belly and slowly out through the mouth is a very convenient and powerful tool for relaxing your mind and body. Doing this whenever I feel stressed really helps me.

Deep Belly Breathing

Being in nature can improve your mood. Just take a walk, or go for a bike ride, lay on the beach or in the park and notice little details that nature has. The sound of a bird, the texture of a leaf, the freshness of the air - notice these things and be grateful for the experience.

Appreciating Nature

Notice emotions, thoughts, and other sensations (sounds, smells, temperature,... ) without judging them or pushing them away. Try to sense where and how you feel the emotions in your body.

Mindfulness

Take a look at the boundaries in your life. You don't always have to do things for other people. Prioritize your own health, time and needs. Saying 'no' is often the healthy response when you know that what is requested or expected of you would stress you out or drain your energy.

Establishing Boundaries

Be spontaneous and do things just for fun not because of what you gain by doing that or because something is the rational thing to do. Try to sense what you really feel like doing in that moment and just do it.

Be like a child 

A healthy body allows the mind to be healthy. Exercise, eat nutritous foods and get enough sleep.

Treat your body well

Trauma often seems as this extreme experience that only people have to deal with that went through horrible events. However, there are more and less severe traumatic experiences. While it can be hard to acknowledge your own trauma it can be really helpful to understand why you mind is the way it is. It is important not to judge and rather witness the emotions that come up.

Understand your own trauma

Fear is supposed to prevent you from getting hurt but sometimes fear is irrational and not helpful. When you understand what you are afraid of and why your are afraid of it the fear is not needed anymore. This gives your mind the opportunity to heal.

Understand your fears

This book helped me understand my own emotions and helped me improve my mental and physical wellbeing. Here are some of the ideas that I found particularly important.

#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER · INSTANT INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER From Dr. Nicole LePera, creator of "the holistic psychologist"—the online phenomenon with more than two million Instagram followers—comes a revolutionary approach to healing that harnesses the power of the self to produce lasting change. As a clinical psychologist, Dr. Nicole LePera often found herself frustrated by the limitations of traditional psychotherapy. Wanting more for her patients—and for herself—she began a journey to develop a united philosophy of mental, physical and spiritual wellness that equips people with the interdisciplinary tools necessary to heal themselves. After experiencing the life-changing results herself, she began to share what she’d learned with others—and soon “The Holistic Psychologist” was born. Now, Dr. LePera is ready to share her much-requested protocol with the world. In How to Do the Work, she offers both a manifesto for SelfHealing as well as an essential guide to creating a more vibrant, authentic, and joyful life. Drawing on the latest research from a diversity of scientific fields and healing modalities, Dr. LePera helps us recognize how adverse experiences and trauma in childhood live with us, resulting in whole body dysfunction—activating harmful stress responses that keep us stuck engaging in patterns of codependency, emotional immaturity, and trauma bonds. Unless addressed, these self-sabotaging behaviors can quickly become cyclical, leaving people feeling unhappy, unfulfilled, and unwell. In How to Do the Work, Dr. LePera offers readers the support and tools that will allow them to break free from destructive behaviors to reclaim and recreate their lives. Nothing short of a paradigm shift, this is a celebration of empowerment that will forever change the way we approach mental wellness and self-care.

Understand yourself and those around you.

psychology

Psychology

mindfulness

health

Health

books

Books

#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER ·  INSTANT INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER From Dr. Nicole LePera, creator of "the holistic psychologist"—the online phenomenon with more than two million Instagram followers—comes a revolutionary approach to healing that harnesses the power of the self to produce lasting change. As a clinical psychologist, Dr. Nicole LePera often found herself frustrated by the limitations of traditional psychotherapy. Wanting more for her patients—and for herself—she began a journey to develop a united philosophy of mental, physical and spiritual wellness that equips people with the interdisciplinary tools necessary to heal themselves. After experiencing the life-changing results herself, she began to share what she’d learned with others—and soon “The Holistic Psychologist” was born.Now, Dr. LePera is ready to share her much-requested protocol with the world. In How to Do the Work, she offers both a manifesto for SelfHealing as well as an essential guide to creating a more vibrant, authentic, and joyful life. Drawing on the latest research from a diversity of scientific fields and healing modalities, Dr. LePera helps us recognize how adverse experiences and trauma in childhood live with us, resulting in whole body dysfunction—activating harmful stress responses that keep us stuck engaging in patterns of codependency, emotional immaturity, and trauma bonds. Unless addressed, these self-sabotaging behaviors can quickly become cyclical, leaving people feeling unhappy, unfulfilled, and unwell. In How to Do the Work, Dr. LePera offers readers the support and tools that will allow them to break free from destructive behaviors to reclaim and recreate their lives. Nothing short of a paradigm shift, this is a celebration of empowerment that will forever change the way we approach mental wellness and self-care.

Dr. Nicole LePera is an accomplished writer whose work has resonated with readers around the world. Dr. Nicole LePera has published several books that explore a range of topics, from fiction to nonfiction, and has received critical acclaim for the ability to weave compelling narratives. Dr. Nicole LePera's writing style is known for its depth and authenticity, and has earned quite a loyal following of readers.

Dr. Nicole LePera

How to Do the Work

If you spend any time around people, you’ll quickly see that while we tend to attribute our own problems to outside events, we’re happy to blame other people for similar issues.This attribution bias, or fundamental attribution error, causes us to over-emphasize internal motivations to explain someone’s behaviour while under-emphasizing the situation factors.We assume that someone’s actions tell us what “kind” of person they are, as opposed to considering the environmental factors that may have influenced their behaviour.

Attribution Error

Most of us are prone to attribution error as it’s a mental shortcut that keeps us from having to think too hard. It’s much simpler to blame someone’s personality than take into account all of the situational factors that may be affecting them.We also like predictability in dealing with other people. We want to know who we can trust and who we can’t. Internal traits are relatively stable. External events are changing all the time. Attributing someone’s behavior to their personality lets us categorize that person for future events.

The Easy Mental Shortcut

One of the first lessons a new manager learns is that people rarely do what you ask them to do. The second lesson is that the fault almost always lies with the manager. Ninety percent of poor behaviours tend to be a result of miscommunication.Managers, especially newer managers, struggle to set clear expectations. They’re unpracticed in giving clear, actionable feedback. And they rarely give their team definitive priorities.

People Often Fail, But Not Because They’re Failures

New managers can go through a quick checklist and look at four potential causes whenever someone fails to live up to their expectations:<ul><li>Direction — Did I clearly communicate my expectations?</li><li>Competence — Did this person have the skill necessary to succeed?</li><li>Opportunity — Did they have the time and resources necessary to succeed?</li><li>Motivation — Were they motivated to do it?</li></ul>

The Checklist For The New Manager

Hanlan’s Razor states, “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.” It’s a good maxim to remember when we start thinking someone’s a jerk for making our lives difficult. But it’s just as important to remember that simply because someone does something stupid, doesn’t mean that they are stupid.Most workplaces are no stranger to incompetence. Yet they don’t hire incompetent people. And they don’t train people to be incompetent. Nevertheless, you don’t need to look hard to find examples of dumb choices and ill-advised actions.

The Reason For Office Incompetence

<ul><li>Have compassion for everyone you meet.</li><li>Put yourself in their shoes. Think of a time that you were in a similar situation and recognize how external factors influenced your own behaviours.</li><li>Instead of assuming, simply have a conversation and understand what’s really driving people’s behaviour.</li></ul>

Overcome Your Attribution Bias Today

If I don’t respond to someone’s email, it’s because I’m busy. Or maybe I got tied up doing more important things. Either way, I had the best of intentions, it’s just that something else got in the…

leadershipandmanagement

Leadership & Management

Leadership Biases: Stop Letting Attribution Error Hold You Back

Research shows that people are more cautious to speak up at work than they were a few years ago. 
In a survey, nine out of ten respondents felt emotionally or physically unsafe to speak out. Topics people dreaded addressing were political or social issues (74%), and pandemic issues (70%).

Feeling unsafe to speak out

When we address issues that are emotionally and politically risky, we tend to see the other person more negatively. We tell ourselves stories that show us as virtuous victims and the other party as the villain. We then form emotions of disgust and fear that give rise to conflict and lead to a downward spiral that reinforces our story. A study found that subjects who tended to tell more extreme stories about their colleagues were more than three times more likely to feel fearful and 3.5 times more likely to lack the confidence to speak their minds with peers.

We dread speaking up because of the stories we tell ourselves

<ul><li>Make it safe. When emotions escalate, reassure others of your respect for them.</li><li>Get curious. Rather than trying to decide who is right, aim to understand the other person's view. Ask questions and try to understand.</li><li>Start with facts behind your point of view, not judgments or opinions.</li><li>Don't focus on convincing. Your main goal should not be to change the other person's mind but to encourage sharing ideas.</li><li>Be confident in your opinion but humble enough to accept that you don't have all the answers and that new information might change your view.</li></ul>

How to have a conversation around tough topics

Research-backed tactics to lower the temperature when talking about hot-button topics.

communication

Communication

How to Respectfully Discuss Contentious Issues at Work

The answer it depends on a number of factors, including the age of the child, the likelihood they will hear it from another source, and what your family’s relationship to the conflict is.If for any reason you think your child is going to hear about this, then get to them and talk to them.If that’s not that case, you should only talk to your child, if under the age of eight, if it’s going to impact your family, if your family will really feel it.

Should I talk to my children about war?

<ul><li>A useful place to start is by asking whether your child has heard about the conflict, and if so, what they have heard.</li><li>It is important to first “process your own feelings as parent and then figure out if you should talk to your child about it.</li><li>By entering the conversation with a question, it also allows parents to listen to their child’s emotional response, and correct any misconceptions with facts.</li><li>Before correcting any misinformation, parents should ask a child how they are feeling about the information they have learned</li></ul>

How to talk to your child about war

<ul><li>According to Dr Gilboa, these messages may be something like: “Our family is safe,” “oppression is wrong,” or “<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/war">war</a> is bad”.</li><li>If the child is older, it may mean they are “ready for a more nuanced convo about conflict, such as where is the gain?” which can help them grow into critical thinkers.</li><li>While it is important that parents broach difficult topics such as war with their children, Dr Gilboa made a point to remind parents that this cannot be successfully done until they have processed their own feelings about the news.</li></ul>

The main messages

<ul><li>While social media can be a useful source of news, it can also be flooded with misinformation.</li><li>In the age of social media, parents should also be aware that their children may be exposed to information about the topic on platforms such as Twitter, TikTok or Instagram. </li><li>If your child comes to you with a piece of information that you don’t believe is accurate, rather than immediately dismissing the news, Dr Gilboa recommends asking what their source is, and then cross-referencing the information with more credible news outlets to see whether it is accurate.</li></ul>

Social Media vs accurate sources

In times of uncertainty or fear, it can be especially daunting deciding whether a child should be exposed to a topic that is frightening.

parenting

Parenting

How and when to talk to children about war, according to a parenting expert

"Thinking, Fast and Slow" is an extensive introduction to the biases and inner mechanisms of the human brain.
While primarily a behavioral economics book, you will also find out about your limitations, how to more efficiently convince people, and understand why people make certain decisions despite feeling they are irrational.
All the conclusions are validated through experiments that Kahneman performed along the years.

How Humans Think

The human brain is controlled by two separate systems:
<ul>
<li>System 1 - Very fast, it works on intuition and evolves as we encounter common situations;</li>
<li>System 2 - Slower. We tend to avoid using it too much, but it is mandatory for complex problems that can't be answered by System 1, such as math problems.</li>
</ul>
You are not aware of which system is controlling the brain unless you make a conscious effort.
The following few ideas rely on this dual system distinction.

Two Systems

An answer to a number question can be influenced by previous information (even if it is completely unrelated to it). Using this strategy to influence decisions is called priming.
It acts as an anchoring effect, the human starts from the real answer he/she would give and goes up/down towards the number that was proposed (accidentally or not). This anchoring can be more or less strong (e.g. when the actual answer is 10, the suggested one is 5, and the person answers 8, it had a 20% impact).

Priming and Anchoring

<ul>
<li>Asking somebody whether he thinks an environment tax of 20% is too high or too low. If it is higher than what he/she had in mind, the answer will still be lower, but closer to 20% than it would have been before. Same for when it is higher.</li>
<li>Telling a judge how many years ago you came to the US can influence the length of the next prison sentence he gives. This is completely unrelated, but it is a number that the judge has in mind and can start from.</li>
</ul>

Examples of Priming

People tend to like or dislike everything about a person, thing, event or idea because it is easier for System 1 to work like that. Careful analysis of good and bad sides is much more mentally taxing.

Halo Effect

When answering a question, the brain tends to only focus on the available information, disregarding the one missing.For example: if you are told somebody is intelligent and strong you automatically think they are a good leader.This leads people to jump to conclusions.

All You See Is All There Is (AYSIATI)

People can associate intensity across subjects that are completely unrelated.For example: if crimes could be represented in colors, then murder would be a deeper shade than robbery.

Intensity Matching

The brain by default prefers using System 1 to answer questions. When the actual question can't be answered this way, it aims to answer a proxy question that can be.For example: When faced with the question "How much would you donate for a humanitarian cause?", the brain automatically turns it to "How much do I actually care about that cause?" and "How much money am I willing to lose donating?"

Proxy Questions

Experiments with a low sample (N) are much more likely to have extreme results than ones with a high N. Conversely, experimenting with large samples is more precise than with small samples.This can make us have a skewed view of reality by jumping to conclusions where evidence is not sufficient.

The Law of Small Numbers

Due to the halo effect and the fact that System 1 deals in averages, not sums, people tend to view things that have higher overall quality as better than ones with lower overall quality, even though the latter may be, in fact, strictly better.For example: 16 perfect-condition pieces of cutlery and 8 broken ones will be valued less than only the 16 perfect pieces, if viewed separately.

Less Is More

People change their opinion about something based on the ease that they retrieve arguments and examples for it.For example: you will think a course you're attending is better if you are asked to find 10 improvements rather than 5, because you will have a harder time finding them all.This applies in the case of news on very rare events that are suddenly an issue (e.g. terrorism, plane crashes). This leads to "Availability Cascades" where the people's emotions turn to irrational fear over insignificant risks.

Availability Bias

Success or failure are typically outliers due to luck and people/things regress to their usual performance (the mean, or the prior).For example: in a sports competition, an athlete that does much better than the rest on the first day will most likely perform worse on the following ones, because he attained the initial performance in part due to chance.Intuitively, this is how success is defined:<ul><li>success = talent + luck</li><li>great success = a little more talent + a lot of luck</li></ul>

Regression to the Mean

An easy way of making predictions by taking into account uncertainty and the natures of the 2 systems:<ul><li>Start with an estimate of the average answer;</li><li>Determine your estimate (performed by System 1);</li><li>Estimate the correlation between your evidence and the target (performed by System 2);</li><li>Use the correlation to move that many percents from the average to the estimate.</li></ul>For example: to estimate your GPA, start from the average GPA and set your expected GPA. Estimate how confident you are in your prediction. The predicted GPA will be closer to your expectation if your confidence is higher.

Intuitive Predictions

Not all domains are equal in nature. Some are more reliant on skill (e.g. surgery), while others are on luck (e.g. stock trading). People can be tricked into thinking that their success is actually based on skill despite the nature of their activity.

Skill Illusion

Experimentally speaking, intuition is less likely to come to a better conclusion than simple formulas, that are not influenced by human nature.For example: you will find more success in hiring candidates if you use a pre-determined checklist instead of relying on your interviewer sense.The importance of intuition increases based on the domain and its dependence on skill.

Intuitions vs. Formulas

When it comes to decision-making, there is a distinction between two idealized "species" of people:<ul><li>Humans - Beings with flaws and feelings, susceptible to each of the biases presented here</li><li>Econs - Beings that are always able to think rationally, unaffected by the biases presented here</li></ul>The "econ" term is the short form for "economist", as people that analyze and invest in the financial markets make every decision consciously, with a clear goal in mind.

Two Species

The degree of "utility" as perceived by people decreases gradually. $1,000 is perceived wildly different for somebody with a net worth of $10,000 vs. $1,000,000. Similarly, an increase from $1,000 to $2,000 is perceived as much better than one from $10,000 to $11,000 despite the equal increase.This is the utility theory developed by the mathematician Daniel Bernoulli.This theory is not ideal and cannot model every case. It fails in certain cases, which is why prospect theory was developed.

Utility Theory

Prospect theory is an improved version of the previous utility theory.Utility is instead based on differences from the reference point.Humans have, by default, some degree of loss aversion, so the absolute utility of a loss will be perceived as greater than one of an equal gain. A survey found that people would refuse a bet where they would gain $100 with a 50% chance and lose $100 otherwise. In fact, they would not accept until the gain is at least twice as big, depending on their degree of loss aversion.

Prospect Theory

Thus, there are 3 cognitive features in prospect theory:<ul><li>Evaluation based on a reference point</li><li>Diminishing sensitivity (borrowed from Bernoulli)</li><li>Loss aversion</li></ul>The theory does not take into account human feelings of disappointment when failing to win gambles.

Prospect Theory Summary

People become more unwilling to let go of the things or benefits they already own. They will only sell them for more than they would be willing to buy them for, even if some time ago they were indifferent to them. In short, they grow attached.

The Endowment Effect

Depending on the situation, people can be either risk averse or risk seeking. It is all about the probability of events happening and whether the end result will be positive or negative. For instance, when the chances are very much in favor and the result is positive, people are risk averse and fear the disappointment that luck won't be on their side, so they do anything to maximize their chances to 100%.The change from 0% to 1% chance (possibility) and from 99% to 100% chance (certainty) are important psychological thresholds.

The Fourfold Pattern

People tend to overestimate the probability of rare events and then overweight them in their decisions.An event is more likely to be preferred if its image is more vivid (e.g. receiving $100 in a blue envelope as opposed to only receiving $100).

Rare events

People (through System 1) are more sensitive to formulations like "12 out of 1,000" and will sometimes think it's more likely than a risk of 2%. Why? The image is more vivid and it is easier for System 1 to think in terms of individual cases as opposed to percentages.Additionally, people (again, System 1) will tend to be more sensitive to higher values of the denominator while disregarding the numerator: 100 out of 10,000 may be perceived as worse (or better, depending on the context) than 12 out of 1,000. This is called Denominator Neglect.

Statistics Put Nicely

When faced with a gamble or chance event, before declining it because of other biases (e.g. loss aversion), think not about the single instance where you win or lose, but rather about your whole life as a series of such gambles and whether the total number will lead to consistent gains. Think like a trader! This is called Broad Framing.

Risk Policies

Acting differently from the default option has the downside of bringing regret if the decision turned out to be wrong and defaulting was the best course of action.Example: you will feel better if you are injured at the convenience store you always go to, as opposed to getting injured at a new convenience store because the other one is doing renovations.

Regret

You can reach more sensible decisions when you have a broader context.In real life, judges are asked not to consult more than the case given to them and, thus, lack the broader context, leading to worse decisions regarding penalties.

Context Matters

Given all the previous information, you can guide people to a decision based on the framing of the problem.Take loss aversion into account - try to disguise the decision as a win (or loss if you prefer them not to take it).Think about the reference point and exercise thought of different ones (e.g. imagine you did not own X).

Focus On Framing

Think about the different mental accounts that are not, in fact, separate (e.g. gains on stocks vs. crypto) and imagine they were merged.Make the default option the one you want and the differences will be huge. For instance, in the case of governmental systems, the percentage of the population that donates organs on death is largely dependent on whether the citizen needs to submit a request to donate or to not donate on death. In 2003 this percentage was close to 100% for Austria and 12% for Germany. The difference lies in what the default option was.

Finally, along with the two systems and the two species, humans also have two selves:<ul><li>Experiencing Self - the self that experiences things in the moment;</li><li>Remembering Self - the self that remembers experiences, remembers them, assigns a rating, and likes creating stories.</li></ul>

Two Selves

The remembering self leverages System 1 and, when it comes to experiences, it cares about:<ul><li>The peak intensity (be it negative or positive);</li><li>The way they end;</li><li>To some extent, the average experience but not the duration, because System 1 deals with averages, not sums. This is called Duration Neglect.</li></ul>

Remembering Self

People can be determined to consider a strictly worse experience as better than another based on the impression of the remembering self.Example: in an experiment, people had their hands in very cold water for 60 seconds, then in cold water for 60 seconds and 30 seconds in slightly warmer water. When asked which experience they would rather repeat, most people chose the second option despite it being strictly worse.

Illusion of the Memory

The previous result makes sense because people tend to answer harder questions like "Which would you rather repeat?" with easier questions like "Which did you like more?"This way they can be convinced to repeat a worse experience just because it ended slightly better or had a lower peak intensity even though it took much longer. This is also why people would rather go through a long and painful surgery than an extremely painful surgery that takes a few seconds.

The neglect of experiencing self and the appeal of remembering self (even though both selves constitute us) leads people to like stories more than anything else.This is why we tend to ignore details that do not fit our view of the story, whatever it is: relationship, career, trips, etc.

Story Appeal

Predicting the future from current circumstances, heavily influenced by emotion (e.g. how your marriage will go based on your wedding day) is not ideal.

Affective Forecasting

Because of AYSIATI, people will attribute larger weight to things they are thinking about the moment.

Focusing Illusion

Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it

People will regress to the mean and the happiness they experience will always turn back to an average value. For most of us, this average value is 7 on a scale from 1 to 10.

Daily Happiness

Lessons in Decision-Making from Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman

problemsolving

Problem Solving

personaldevelopment

Personal Development

The Art of Decision-Making

Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Discover the world of business and economics.

economics

Economics

scienceandnature

Science & Nature

Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Daniel Kahneman (born 5 March 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist and winner of the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, notable for his work on behavioral finance and hedonic psychology.With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors using heuristics and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973, Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982), and developed Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). He was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in Prospect theory. Currently, he is professor emeritus of psychology at Princeton University's Department of Psychology.

Daniel Kahneman

Thinking, Fast and Slow

“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”

“Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them.”

“Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about.”

Resulting means judging the quality of a decision based on the quality of the result.Our tendency is to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. The prevents us from accurately assessing the quality of our decisions and the role of luck in the outcomes we achieve.

Resulting

Life is not like chess. Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck.Life is more like poker. You could make the smartest, most careful decision and still have it blow up in your face.

Life is Poker, Not Chess

A bet is a decision about an uncertain future. Thus, most of the decisions in your life – switching jobs, choosing a partner, selecting your field of study, not doing something – are bets.They’re choices that you make in the face of an uncertain future.

All Decisions Are Bets

“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of ‘I’m not sure.’”

This is how we think we form our beliefs:<ul><li>We hear something</li><li>We think about it and then determine whether if it is true or false</li><li>We form our belief</li></ul>This is how we actually form our beliefs:<ul><li>We hear something</li><li>We believe it to be true</li><li>Only sometime later, if we have the time or the inclination, we think about it and then determine whether it is true or false</li></ul>Our pre-existing beliefs influence the way we see the world and the way we make decisions.

How We Form Our Beliefs

People are better at recognizing biased reasoning in others but are blind to bias in themselves. <ul><li>Being smart can actually make bias worse. Blind-spot bias is worse the smarter you are.</li><li>Being smart and aware of your capacity for irrationality alone doesn’t help you refrain from biased reasoning.</li></ul>

Blind-Spot Bias

Even when people experience the same event at the same time, if you ask them about it, you will often get two very different accounts about what happened.That’s because the way we interpret the world is not only a function of the objective experience but includes how we see and choose to understand the world.

The Rashomon Effect

It is important to have a go-to group of people with a common interest in thinking in bets.The characteristics of a good group to practice truth-seeking with:<ul><li>A focus on accuracy (over confirmation), which includes rewarding truth-seeking, objectivity, and open-mindedness within the group</li><li>Accountability for which members have advance notice</li><li>Openness to a variety of ideas</li></ul>Once we are a part of a group that regularly reinforces exploratory thought, the routine becomes reflexive, running on its own.

Thinking In Bets: The Buddy System

<ul><li>Express uncertainty: If we start by making clear our uncertainty, our audience is more likely to understand that the discussion held does not always have to be about right or wrong but about openness to different perspectives.</li><li>Lead with assent: Everyone likes to be affirmed. Avoid the language of no. Use ‘and’ more than you use ‘but’ in an expression of possibly polarizing ideas</li><li>Ask for temporary agreement: Whenever one is offloading emotion to us, we can ask them if they are looking to vent or if they are looking for advice</li><li>Focus on the future,  rather than rehearsing what has happened.</li></ul>

How To Engage In Truth-Seeking

Scenario planning is a productive skill to develop in decision making because:<ul><li>It reminds us that the future is uncertain, giving a more realistic view of the world</li><li>It prepares us for how to respond to different outcomes that might respond from our initial decisions</li><li>Anticipating the range of outcomes keeps us from unproductivity regret</li><li>By mapping out potential outcomes & probabilities, we are less likely to fall prey to resulting or hindsight bias.</li></ul>

Scenario Planning 

Learn to evaluate life and business choices via the lens of Opportunity Costs

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What Is Opportunity Cost

Wall Street Journal bestseller! Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is also a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute. In 2020, she joined the board of the Renew Democracy Initiative.

Annie Duke

Thinking in Bets

“Failing is often the best way to learn, and because of that, early failure is a kind of necessary investment.”

“Knowledge does not change behavior,” he said. “We have all encountered crazy shrinks and obese doctors and divorced marriage counselors.”

The brain has two independent systems at work at all times.<ul><li>First, there’s the emotional side. It’s the part of you that is instinctive, that feels pain and pleasure. </li><li>Second, there’s the rational side, also known as the reflective or conscious system. It’s the part of you that deliberates and analyzes and looks into the future.</li></ul>Jonathan Haidt, the author of The Happiness Hypothesis, says that our emotional side is an Elephant and our rational side is its Rider. Change is only possible when both Rider and the Elephant come together.

The Elephant and the Rider  

The basic three-part framework you need to change behavior:<ul><li>Direct the Rider. Provide crystal clear direction. “What looks like resistance is often a lack of clarity.”</li><li>Motivate the Elephant. Engage the emotional side. “What looks like laziness is often exhaustion.”</li><li>Shape the Path. Create the conditions for both the rider and the elephant to excel. “What looks like a people problem is often a situation problem.</li></ul>

The Change Framework

<ul><li>Bright spots are successful efforts worth emulating</li><li>To discover bright spots, ask yourself: “What’s working and how can we do more of it?”</li><li>The Miracle Question: “What’s the first small sign you’d see that would make you think the problem was gone?”</li><li>You could also ask yourself if the success of the few could be replicated by the many? If yes, then you’ve found a bright spot.</li></ul>

Bright Spots

Any successful change requires a translation of ambiguous goals into concrete behaviors. In short, to make a switch, you need to script the critical moves.Too many choices can lead to decision paralysis. For effective change, limit the options as much as possible.

Script the Critical Moves

Create a destination postcard that shows what you want to achieve in the near future.Destination postcards—pictures of a future that hard work can make possible—show the Rider where you’re headed, and they show the Elephant why the journey is worthwhile.

Point to the Destination

“People find it more motivating to be partly finished with a longer journey than to be at the starting gate of a shorter one.“

Why is it so hard to make lasting changes in our companies, in our communities, and in our own lives? The primary obstacle is a conflict that's built into our brains, say Chip and Dan Heath, authors of the critically acclaimed bestseller Made to Stick. Psychologists have discovered that our minds are ruled by two different systems - the rational mind and the emotional mind—that compete for control. The rational mind wants a great beach body; the emotional mind wants that Oreo cookie. The rational mind wants to change something at work; the emotional mind loves the comfort of the existing routine. This tension can doom a change effort - but if it is overcome, change can come quickly. In Switch, the Heaths show how everyday people - employees and managers, parents and nurses - have united both minds and, as a result, achieved dramatic results: • The lowly medical interns who managed to defeat an entrenched, decades-old medical practice that was endangering patients • The home-organizing guru who developed a simple technique for overcoming the dread of housekeeping • The manager who transformed a lackadaisical customer-support team into service zealots by removing a standard tool of customer service In a compelling, story-driven narrative, the Heaths bring together decades of counterintuitive research in psychology, sociology, and other fields to shed new light on how we can effect transformative change. Switch shows that successful changes follow a pattern, a pattern you can use to make the changes that matter to you, whether your interest is in changing the world or changing your waistline.

Switch

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